*DISRUPTION ERA HAS COME* SIAPKAH KITA?

https://www.facebook.com/rikodavidsukamto/posts/816604791880792

Renungan :

*DISRUPTION ERA HAS COME*
(Zaman Gangguan Sudah Datang)

SIAPKAH KITA?
Tulisan Nana Padmosaputro

_Guys_, banyakkah diantara kita yang suka mengamati fenomena-fenomena dan kejadian sekitar, lalu merenungkan implikasinya di depan?

Banyakkah diantara kita yang sadar akan perubahan zaman yang kian mengerikan?

Perkembangan teknologi sedang _ngebut-ngebutnya_ lhoooo...
Ada yang _ngeh nggak_ , ini akan menuju kemana?

Banyak pekerjaan dan profesi bakal punah. Coba kita _list_ satu-persatu ya.

1. Kamera digital datang, pabrik roll film tutup, profesi tukang cuci cetak foto, raib....

2. _Compact Disc_ datang, kaset lenyap. Pabrik kaset tutup, buruh di PHK

3. Teknologi internet datang, CD menyingkir. Pabrik-pabrik tutup juga. Siapa korbannya? Tetap sama: Buruh.

4. Temuan proyektor mini datang, sebentar lagi TV akan hilang, pabrik TV akan punah (berikut dengan buruh-buruh dan pekerjanya)

5. _Internet banking_ datang.... pelan namun pasti _teller bank_ berkurang. Sebentar lagi pekerja-pekerja bank level operator yang jadi korban. _Nganggur_. Besar kemungkinan perbankan akan menciut tinggal bankir-bankir kunci saja yang bekerja.

6. Teknologi online, sudah membuat banyak supermarket, toko retail dan restoran tutup. Karena orang lebih suka belanja online. Siapa korbannya? Para penjaga toko dan pelayan restoran.

7. Perusahaan-perusahaan telekomunikasi, tumbang satu persatu. Kantor layanan pelanggan macam grapari tutup, karyawannya kemana? Dirumahkan.

8. Teknologi 3D printing datang, di China sudah ada gedung dibangun tanpa perlu banyak tenaga arsitek, insinyur sipil, mandor dan tukang bangunan. Bisa terbayang kan, sebentar lagi nasib para insinyur, tukang bikin maket, tukang gambar akan ngalami persaingan kerja yg kayak apa...??? Jutaan alumnusnya mau diserap kerja di mana?

9. Masih soal teknologi 3D printing. Orang akan bisa membuat dan memproduksi sendiri barang keperluannya... mulai dari piring gelas, sampai kutang dan aneka souvenir.

10. Era youtube datang, seniman dan artis penyanyi kejengkang. Mau jualan lagu gimana caranya kalau kaset dan CD sudah nggak ada begini....? Ya lewat youtube, bersaing dengan jutaan manusia awam lainnya yg ternyata pada pinter nyanyi....

11. Jalan tol tidak lagi membutuhkan tenaga manusia untuk menjaga booth tiket...

12. Era medsos sudah melanda. Setiap orang bisa menjadi jurnalis GRATIS dadakan dengan gadgetnya. Melaporkan kejadian apapun yang ditemukan di jalanan. Media cetak (koran dan majalah) sedang mengalami sakratul maut. Wartawan akan jadi profesi purba yang tinggal kenangan...

13. Buku online datang, percetakan gulung tikar... siapa korbannya? Pegawai kecil yang kerja mencetak.

14. Sudah ditemukan teknologi mengembang biakkan sel-sel daging ternak, sehingga orang tidak perlu lagi membangun peternakan untuk bahan pangan protein...
.......masih ada banyak lagi, coba saja amati dan sadari.

Lalu cari : siapa korbannya...????

Ya kamu. Kita. Anak cucu kita.

Bukannya anak cucunya Rockefeller atau Rothschild.

Tapi KITA...! Masyarakat menengah bawah, yang hanya memiliki skill sederhana untuk mencari nafkah. Skill yang akan mudah digantikan oleh robot dan mesin...!!!

Kalau kita betul-betul merenungkan ini, kita akan sadar bahwa dampaknya sangat langsung ke kehidupan kita :

1. Kemana anak-anak kita akan melanjutkan kuliah? Yakinkah kita, jurusan yang dipilihnya, masih akan menyediakan pekerjaan masa depan, 20 tahun mendatang...?

2. Masihkah kita akan melestarikan kebiasaan menikah muda dan memproduksi banyak anak... ketika kita sadar : kita akan mewariskan dunia yang semakin mengerikan persaingan kerjanya? Bukan hanya bersaing dengan sesama manusia, tapi juga melawan mesin dan robot (ingat keributan dan gelombang protes atas diterapkannya mesin di pintu2 tol...? Sayangku, kemajuan jaman nggak bisa berhenti hanya karena kita omelin & maki-maki)

3. Masihkah kita merasa puas ketika guru-guru menjejalkan anak-anak kita dengan aneka ilmu yang akan segera menjadi usang; dan bukannya mengajarkan caranya berpikir & membiasakan diri memikirkan solusi dan inovasi?

4. Masihkah kita akan merasa bangga jika anak kita bisa masuk universitas-universitas dengan bermodalkan hafalan ayat...?

5. Akankah kita bertengkar terus tentang theis dan atheisme... tentang agama anu dan ani... lalu lupa bahwa ada pasar global dan tsunami iptek yang harus dihadapi jika kita tak ingin anak cucu kita mati berdiri sambil memeluk kitab suci yang entah akan menolong dengan cara apa.

6. Masihkah kita akan memilih pemimpin negara dan pengelola daerah yang tidak tahu apa yang harus dilakukannya bagi kita, rakyatnya...???

7. Masihkah kita akan getol ngebahas kejayaan masa lalu, ketika bangsa lain sudah siaga menghadapi kenyataan baru (The New Reality)?

Jangan salah sangka. Aku bukan berniat mengusik hal-hal sakral atau super penting yang kalian anggap utama dan terutama dalam hidup.

Tapi tolonglah bangun sebentar dari
tidur siangmu, dan lihat : dunia kita ini sedang melaju dengan kecepatan penuh, ke depan.... dan sikonnya sulit diprediksi. Bersiaplah. Lakukan hal-hal yang SUNGGUH-SUNGGUH PENTING, bagi survivalmu & keluargamu....
Semua yg nyata akan baik adanya, suksesmu bukan jaminan untuk keluargamu, be creative !

Selamat pagi &
Semangat pagi....🙏💪

Understanding the Pareto Principle (The 80/20 Rule)

https://betterexplained.com/articles/understanding-the-pareto-principle-the-8020-rule/

Originally, the Pareto Principle referred to the observation that 80% of Italy’s wealth belonged to only 20% of the population.

More generally, the Pareto Principle is the observation (not law) that most things in life are not distributed evenly. It can mean all of the following things:

• 20% of the input creates 80% of the result
• 20% of the workers produce 80% of the result
• 20% of the customers create 80% of the revenue
• 20% of the bugs cause 80% of the crashes
• 20% of the features cause 80% of the usage
• And on and on…

But be careful when using this idea! First, there’s a common misconception that the numbers 20 and 80 must add to 100 — they don’t!

20% of the workers could create 10% of the result. Or 50%. Or 80%. Or 99%, or even 100%. Think about it — in a group of 100 workers, 20 could do all the work while the other 80 goof off. In that case, 20% of the workers did 100% of the work. Remember that the 80/20 rule is a rough guide about typical distributions.

Also recognize that the numbers don’t have to be “20%” and “80%” exactly. The key point is that most things in life (effort, reward, output) are not distributed evenly – some contribute more than others.

Life Isn’t Fair

What does it mean when we say “things aren’t distributed evenly”? The key point is that each unit of work (or time) doesn’t contribute the same amount.

In a perfect world, every employee would contribute the same amount, every bug would be equally important, every feature would be equally loved by users. Planning would be so easy.

But that isn’t always the case:

The 80/20 rule observes that most things have an unequal distribution. Out of 5 things, perhaps 1 will be “cool”. That cool thing/idea/person will result in majority of the impact of the group (the green line). We’d like life to be like the red line, where every piece contributes equally, but that doesn’t always happen.

Of course, this ratio can change. It could be 80/20, 90/10, or 90/20 (remember, the numbers don’t have to add to 100!).

The key point is that most things are not 1/1, where each unit of “input” (effort, time, labor) contributes exactly the same amount of output.

So Why Is This Useful?

The Pareto Principle helps you realize that the majority of results come from a minority of inputs. Knowing this, if…

20% of workers contribute 80% of results: Focus on rewarding these employees.

20% of bugs contribute 80% of crashes: Focus on fixing these bugs first.

20% of customers contribute 80% of revenue: Focus on satisfying these customers.

The examples go on. The point is to realize that you can often focus your effort on the 20% that makes a difference, instead of the 80% that doesn’t add much.

In economics terms, there is diminishing marginal benefit. This is related to the law of diminishing returns: each additional hour of effort, each extra worker is adding less “oomph” to the final result. By the end, you are spending lots of time on the minor details.

A Fun, Non-Math Example, Please

Everything is nice and rosy in the abstract. I want to give you a real example. Take a look at this awesome video of an artist drawing a car in Microsoft Paint. It’s pretty phenomenal what can be accomplished with such a basic tool:

Now let’s deconstruct this video. It’s about 5 minutes long, so each minute is about 20% of the way to completion (of course the video is sped up, but we are only interested in relative times anyway). Take a look at how the car evolved over time:

	1:06 (Level 1) – Wireframe
	2:00 (Level 2) – Basic coloring
	3:05 (Level 3) – Beginning details: rims, windshield
	4:04 (Level 4) – Advanced details: shading, reflections
	5:05 (Level 5) – Finishing touches: headlights, background

Now, let’s say the artist was creating potential designs for a client. Given 5 minutes of time, he could present:

• A single car at top quality (Level 5)
• A reasonably detailed car (Level 3) and a colorized wireframe (Level 2)
• 5 cars at a wireframe level (5 Level 1s)

“But Level 5 is way better than Level 1!” someone will inevitably shout.

The point isn’t that Level 5 is better than Level 1 — it clearly is. The question is whether a single Level 5 is better than five Level 1s, or some other combination.

Let’s say your customer doesn’t know whether they want a car, a truck, or a boat, let alone the color. Spending the time to create a Level 5 drawing wouldn’t make sense — show some concepts, get a general direction, and then work out the details.

The point is to put in the amount of effort needed to get the most bang for your buck — it’s usually in the first 20% (or 10%, or 30% — the exact amount can vary). In the planning stage, it may be better to get 5 fast prototypes rather than 1 polished product.

In this example, after 1 minute (20% of the time) we have a great understanding of what the final outcome will be. Most of the “work” is done up front, in the sense of deciding the type of vehicle, body style, and perspective. The rest is “filling in details” like colors and shading.

This isn’t to say the details are easy — they’re not — but each detail does not add as much to the picture as the broad strokes in the beginning. The difference between #4 and #5 is not as great as #1 and #2, or better yet, a blank drawing and #1 (the time from 0:00 to 1:06). You really have to look to see the differences on the car between #4 and #5, while the contribution #1 makes is quite obvious.

Concluding Thoughts

This may not be the best strategy in every case. The point of the Pareto principle is to recognize that most things in life are not distributed evenly. Make decisions on allocating time, resources and effort based on this:

• Instead of spending 1 hour drafting a paper/blog post you’re not sure is needed, spend 10 minutes thinking of ideas. Then spend 50 minutes writing about the best one.
• Instead of agonizing 3 hours on a single design, make 6 layouts (30 minutes each) and pick your favorite.
• Rather than spending 3 hours to read 3 articles in depth, spend 5 minutes glancing through 12 articles (1 hour) and then spend an hour each on the two best ones (2 hours).

These techniques may or may not make sense – the point is to realize you have the option to focus on the important 20%.

Lastly, don’t think the Pareto Principle means only do 80% of the work needed. It may be true that 80% of a bridge is built in the first 20% of the time, but you still need the rest of the bridge in order for it to work. It may be true that 80% of the Mona Lisa was painted in the first 20% of the time, but it wouldn’t be the masterpiece it is without all the details. The Pareto Principle is an observation, not a law of nature.

When you are seeking top quality, you need all 100%. When you are trying to optimize your bang for the buck, focusing on the critical 20% is a time-saver. See what activities generate the most results and give them your appropriate attention.